Alialioto
Robert Novak has an interesting analysis of the political ramifications of the Alito Confirmation:
Alito Confirmation: When John Kerry (D-Mass.) called from Davos to urge a Senate filibuster of Judge Samuel Alito he set himself up as the Left's White Knight. He also set up the Left for a huge disappointment. .
1) When the vote tally on cloture came down, it was a sign of how much things have changed in three years. In 2004, the votes on judicial filibusters were almost all party-line affairs, with the numbers coming up as 53-44, 54-44, et cetera. Monday's 72-25 vote in favor of cloture on Alito was a sound and unambiguous repudiation by Senate Democrats of the filibuster strategy that their leaders adopted after losing the 2002 elections.
2) The obstruction strategy was the brainchild of Senators Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.) and Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). The two powerful Democrats had convinced former Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) to lead the caucus in this direction. When Democrats held a tenuous and brief Senate majority between May 2001 and January 2003, they simply blocked Bush's judicial nominees in committee. But once they were back in the minority, they rallied with a series of successful filibusters against conservative circuit court nominees. Our analysis ever since has been that this strategy was politically disastrous, playing a huge part in Daschle's ouster and the net loss of six Senate seats over two elections.
3) Democrats' decision to break ranks on the Alito cloture vote was more than just the result of the tactical blunders their colleagues made in the Alito hearings, although they were critical as well. In the Judiciary Committee hearings, Democrats spent their time carping on ethics questions that proved trivial, and attempting to create the impression that Alito would give the executive branch free rein. They even created a new conspiracy theory by misrepresenting the constitutional principle of the so-called "unitary executive."
4) But the underlying problem was strategic. The Democrats' Senate dam showed signs of cracking when the "gang of 14" deal allowed some of Bush's judges to be confirmed last year. But in fact, the collapse really began with the election of 2004, in which Democrats lost five Senate seats. The only effective way to shape the federal courts is to win elections, and Democrats failed to do that -- in part because their judicial strategy disgusted voters and energized the Right.
5) The lopsided cloture vote ensures that it will be difficult for Democrats to justify voting for further judicial filibusters in the near future. The final 58-42 vote in favor of confirmation serves as proof that if Democrats had really wanted to stop Alito, they could have. This will further enrage the Left.
6) The magnitude of the Democrats' problem here should not be underestimated. In his hearings, Alito refused even to give Democrats a deferential nod on the issue of abortion -- which, despite what anyone says, was really the central issue of the nomination. This deference had previously been considered essential for any nominee's confirmation. Yet despite this fact, the left wing of the caucus could no longer hold their colleagues together in a filibuster. Indeed, many of the Democrats who crossed the aisle and supported cloture had no reason to fear for their political survival.
7) On the other hand, the cloture vote shows that the Left still holds the Democratic Party by the throat. Every Senate Democrat who is reasonably considered a presidential candidate for 2008 -- including Senators Kerry, Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.), Joseph Biden (D-Del.), Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) and Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) -- voted for the filibuster. This will endear them to the base they need to raise money and win Democratic primaries, but it is a double-edged sword. The fact that the filibuster lost by such a huge margin gives Republicans ammunition to tar all of them as extremists who are out of step with the American people.
8) This is one more symptom of Democrats' current problems in general. The ideological Left wants to take a page from the playbook of Bush advisor Karl Rove, whose contribution to politics is the notion that one can win elections by appealing most strongly to one's political base. But their problem is that the ideological Left is much smaller than its counterpart on the Right. The Left makes up only a small portion of the Democratic Party base, which otherwise consists largely of ethnic factions and other interests not necessarily committed to liberal dogma.
9) Kerry's call for a filibuster drew complaints afterward from Democrats because it showed just how divided the party remains, despite the current political trends in their favor. In a sense, Kerry called his own bluff and showed his weak hand, in the hopes that the gesture would please the Left.
10) Kerry's action came in opposition to Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid's requests that senators avoid the filibuster confrontation. Reid wanted the 58-42 confirmation to be a sign of Democratic unity. Instead, the appearance is that his caucus was routed, and this was Kerry's fault. Then again, Red-state Democrats can now appear fair-minded by telling constituents that they did not filibuster Alito, even though they voted against him. Kerry may have unintentionally helped some of them.
11) While certainly not the closest of votes, the Alito confirmation was the most partisan in recent times, with just four Democrats and one Republican switching sides. But it says less about Alito than it does about the political party realignment along ideological lines. It also shows, again, that the abortion issue is the most contentious and unsettled issue in America today.
12) Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) may have gotten a White House OK to vote against Alito, but this will not help him with GOP primary voters back home. It was not a wise decision for him. He is increasingly looking like a one-termer.
Alito Confirmation: When John Kerry (D-Mass.) called from Davos to urge a Senate filibuster of Judge Samuel Alito he set himself up as the Left's White Knight. He also set up the Left for a huge disappointment. .
1) When the vote tally on cloture came down, it was a sign of how much things have changed in three years. In 2004, the votes on judicial filibusters were almost all party-line affairs, with the numbers coming up as 53-44, 54-44, et cetera. Monday's 72-25 vote in favor of cloture on Alito was a sound and unambiguous repudiation by Senate Democrats of the filibuster strategy that their leaders adopted after losing the 2002 elections.
2) The obstruction strategy was the brainchild of Senators Ted Kennedy (D-Mass.) and Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). The two powerful Democrats had convinced former Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) to lead the caucus in this direction. When Democrats held a tenuous and brief Senate majority between May 2001 and January 2003, they simply blocked Bush's judicial nominees in committee. But once they were back in the minority, they rallied with a series of successful filibusters against conservative circuit court nominees. Our analysis ever since has been that this strategy was politically disastrous, playing a huge part in Daschle's ouster and the net loss of six Senate seats over two elections.
3) Democrats' decision to break ranks on the Alito cloture vote was more than just the result of the tactical blunders their colleagues made in the Alito hearings, although they were critical as well. In the Judiciary Committee hearings, Democrats spent their time carping on ethics questions that proved trivial, and attempting to create the impression that Alito would give the executive branch free rein. They even created a new conspiracy theory by misrepresenting the constitutional principle of the so-called "unitary executive."
4) But the underlying problem was strategic. The Democrats' Senate dam showed signs of cracking when the "gang of 14" deal allowed some of Bush's judges to be confirmed last year. But in fact, the collapse really began with the election of 2004, in which Democrats lost five Senate seats. The only effective way to shape the federal courts is to win elections, and Democrats failed to do that -- in part because their judicial strategy disgusted voters and energized the Right.
5) The lopsided cloture vote ensures that it will be difficult for Democrats to justify voting for further judicial filibusters in the near future. The final 58-42 vote in favor of confirmation serves as proof that if Democrats had really wanted to stop Alito, they could have. This will further enrage the Left.
6) The magnitude of the Democrats' problem here should not be underestimated. In his hearings, Alito refused even to give Democrats a deferential nod on the issue of abortion -- which, despite what anyone says, was really the central issue of the nomination. This deference had previously been considered essential for any nominee's confirmation. Yet despite this fact, the left wing of the caucus could no longer hold their colleagues together in a filibuster. Indeed, many of the Democrats who crossed the aisle and supported cloture had no reason to fear for their political survival.
7) On the other hand, the cloture vote shows that the Left still holds the Democratic Party by the throat. Every Senate Democrat who is reasonably considered a presidential candidate for 2008 -- including Senators Kerry, Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.), Joseph Biden (D-Del.), Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) and Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) -- voted for the filibuster. This will endear them to the base they need to raise money and win Democratic primaries, but it is a double-edged sword. The fact that the filibuster lost by such a huge margin gives Republicans ammunition to tar all of them as extremists who are out of step with the American people.
8) This is one more symptom of Democrats' current problems in general. The ideological Left wants to take a page from the playbook of Bush advisor Karl Rove, whose contribution to politics is the notion that one can win elections by appealing most strongly to one's political base. But their problem is that the ideological Left is much smaller than its counterpart on the Right. The Left makes up only a small portion of the Democratic Party base, which otherwise consists largely of ethnic factions and other interests not necessarily committed to liberal dogma.
9) Kerry's call for a filibuster drew complaints afterward from Democrats because it showed just how divided the party remains, despite the current political trends in their favor. In a sense, Kerry called his own bluff and showed his weak hand, in the hopes that the gesture would please the Left.
10) Kerry's action came in opposition to Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid's requests that senators avoid the filibuster confrontation. Reid wanted the 58-42 confirmation to be a sign of Democratic unity. Instead, the appearance is that his caucus was routed, and this was Kerry's fault. Then again, Red-state Democrats can now appear fair-minded by telling constituents that they did not filibuster Alito, even though they voted against him. Kerry may have unintentionally helped some of them.
11) While certainly not the closest of votes, the Alito confirmation was the most partisan in recent times, with just four Democrats and one Republican switching sides. But it says less about Alito than it does about the political party realignment along ideological lines. It also shows, again, that the abortion issue is the most contentious and unsettled issue in America today.
12) Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) may have gotten a White House OK to vote against Alito, but this will not help him with GOP primary voters back home. It was not a wise decision for him. He is increasingly looking like a one-termer.
posted by Timothy Birdnow | 5:37 AM
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