A Cold Day in Hell; Arctic Ice not Going Away Soon
Timothy Birdnow
Over at Second Hand Smoke Wesley Smith discusses a recent research finding that Arctic summer sea ice isn't going away any time soon. http://www.firstthings.com/blogs/secondhandsmoke/2011/08/05/global-warming-hysteria-arctic-ice-not-be-melting-after-all/comment-page-1/#comment-33148
Citing a BBC story http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm about a paper by Svend Funder et al. showing that Arctic ice was much higher during warmer periods. (See abstract here http://www.sciencemag.org/content/333/6043/747.abstract) This, of course, destroys the claims that the Arctic will be ice free by 2014, or even 2030.
And, of course, it solicited outrage among the Gang Green, who berated Mr. Smith, purposely missing his point and demanding that he quote scientific papers that set a doomsday for ice date.
I left the following comment:
According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center;
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq.html
"The scientific community has a range of predictions concerning when we could see an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. It could be as early as 2013 or as late as 2100. NSIDC’s projections generally fall somewhere in the lower half of this range."
Since this is a release for the general public I suppose it has no validity. Oh no! They never actually pick a date, after all!
What about Mark Serreze at the NSIDC who predicted sea ice would be gone by 2070 but moved his date up based on the work of James Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory? He is on record saying that sea ice wold be gone by 2050.
Here's a bit of Overland. http://mrc.org/pdf/WANG-OVERLAND-ARCTIC%20SEA%20ICE%20ESTIMATE.pdf
Overland and Wang “predict an expected value for a nearly sea ice free Arctic in September by the year 2037.” and in their summary state "They also note in their summary, however, that “a sea ice free Arctic in September may occur as early as the late 2020s” based on their analysis of six computer models.”
It's called lying by omission. The people at the NSIDC know exactly how such a quote will be taken, and have allowed it to stand because it suits an agenda.
How about this:
http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story.html?id=c76d05dd-2864-43b2-a2e3-82e0a8ca05d5&k=53683
Louis Fortier, scientific director of ArcticNet, a Canadian research network
"The frightening models we didn't even dare to talk about before are now proving to be true," Fortier told CanWest News Service, referring to computer models that take into account the thinning of the sea ice and the warming from the albedo effect - the Earth is absorbing more energy as the sea ice melts.
According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015.
"And it's probably going to happen even faster than that," said Fortier, who leads an international team of researchers in the Arctic looking for clues to climate change."
End excerpt.
How about this:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
Wieslaw Maslowski
"Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007," the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.
"So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative."
In fact, here is a compilation of scientists who made exactly the pronouncements that many of the commenters here are demanding.
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=arctic+ice+free&hl=en&btnG=Search&as_sdt=1%2C14&as_sdtp=on
The reality is that science cannot predict such things with any degree of certainty, but those with an agenda latch on to the apocalyptic predictions to advance an agenda. These scientists should vocally demand accuracy, but they do not because it gets them celebrity status and research money. Perhaps the lion's share of scientists do not buy a 2014 date, but they are gung-ho to predict earlier rather than later.
In the end they have to take the blame for the misuse of their science. Climatology has become the whore of Environmentalism and Statism.
End comment at SHS.
At any rate, I'm sure the Gang Green crowd with their talking points will be all over me, demanding more of the same.
They never give up. Neither should we.
Over at Second Hand Smoke Wesley Smith discusses a recent research finding that Arctic summer sea ice isn't going away any time soon. http://www.firstthings.com/blogs/secondhandsmoke/2011/08/05/global-warming-hysteria-arctic-ice-not-be-melting-after-all/comment-page-1/#comment-33148
Citing a BBC story http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm about a paper by Svend Funder et al. showing that Arctic ice was much higher during warmer periods. (See abstract here http://www.sciencemag.org/content/333/6043/747.abstract) This, of course, destroys the claims that the Arctic will be ice free by 2014, or even 2030.
And, of course, it solicited outrage among the Gang Green, who berated Mr. Smith, purposely missing his point and demanding that he quote scientific papers that set a doomsday for ice date.
I left the following comment:
According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center;
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq.html
"The scientific community has a range of predictions concerning when we could see an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. It could be as early as 2013 or as late as 2100. NSIDC’s projections generally fall somewhere in the lower half of this range."
Since this is a release for the general public I suppose it has no validity. Oh no! They never actually pick a date, after all!
What about Mark Serreze at the NSIDC who predicted sea ice would be gone by 2070 but moved his date up based on the work of James Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory? He is on record saying that sea ice wold be gone by 2050.
Here's a bit of Overland. http://mrc.org/pdf/WANG-OVERLAND-ARCTIC%20SEA%20ICE%20ESTIMATE.pdf
Overland and Wang “predict an expected value for a nearly sea ice free Arctic in September by the year 2037.” and in their summary state "They also note in their summary, however, that “a sea ice free Arctic in September may occur as early as the late 2020s” based on their analysis of six computer models.”
It's called lying by omission. The people at the NSIDC know exactly how such a quote will be taken, and have allowed it to stand because it suits an agenda.
How about this:
http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story.html?id=c76d05dd-2864-43b2-a2e3-82e0a8ca05d5&k=53683
Louis Fortier, scientific director of ArcticNet, a Canadian research network
"The frightening models we didn't even dare to talk about before are now proving to be true," Fortier told CanWest News Service, referring to computer models that take into account the thinning of the sea ice and the warming from the albedo effect - the Earth is absorbing more energy as the sea ice melts.
According to these models, there will be no sea ice left in the summer in the Arctic Ocean somewhere between 2010 and 2015.
"And it's probably going to happen even faster than that," said Fortier, who leads an international team of researchers in the Arctic looking for clues to climate change."
End excerpt.
How about this:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7139797.stm
Wieslaw Maslowski
"Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007," the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.
"So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative."
In fact, here is a compilation of scientists who made exactly the pronouncements that many of the commenters here are demanding.
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=arctic+ice+free&hl=en&btnG=Search&as_sdt=1%2C14&as_sdtp=on
The reality is that science cannot predict such things with any degree of certainty, but those with an agenda latch on to the apocalyptic predictions to advance an agenda. These scientists should vocally demand accuracy, but they do not because it gets them celebrity status and research money. Perhaps the lion's share of scientists do not buy a 2014 date, but they are gung-ho to predict earlier rather than later.
In the end they have to take the blame for the misuse of their science. Climatology has become the whore of Environmentalism and Statism.
End comment at SHS.
At any rate, I'm sure the Gang Green crowd with their talking points will be all over me, demanding more of the same.
They never give up. Neither should we.
posted by Timothy Birdnow | 8:12 AM
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