The Best Defense is a Good Offense
Al-Quada is growing desperate in Iraq. That fact is illustrated by the safehouse letter captured by American forces after the assassination of Al-Zarqawi. If we stay the course, we will win.
The great danger lies in what will happen during der feind`s death spasms; generally when an enemy is boxed in they will launch some kind of desperate counter-strike. Sometimes the strike will work (the Tet offensive) more often it will not (the Bulge). What will Al-Quada do?
It should be obvious that Al-Quada`s ability to wage war effectively in Iraq is dwindling; basic military strategy suggests attacking elsewhere. I`ve always believed that Al-Quada has been quietly setting up operations here in the United States, but has not acted because another attack would galvanize the will of the Nation. I believe their strategy has been to fight us overseas so that America would become war-weary and, as in Vietnam, politics would drive an eventual capitulation. Bin-Laden has called America a paper tiger, and pointed out that we have retreated whenever we have been hit. Of course, he misunderstood our character in many ways; Somalia, for instance, was purely an humanitarian exercise (as opposed to an act of Imperialism, as Bin Laden believed) so we pulled out after ``Black Hawk Down`` because we saw no reason to die helping a bunch of ingrates. Bin Laden, and indeed many in the world throughout history, has never understood this about America. (The Japanese viewed America in the same manner prior to the bombing of Pearl Harbor-they learned the hard way.)
I think the top brass at Al-Quada issued their strongest interdiction against attacking America on her own soil. The idea is to put Democrats in office, who will wind down the war; the failure to win this thing politically may change matters. If Al-Quada has the means, they may well launch an attack against the homeland. I think they were counting on winning in Iraq, and failure there means they have to take the war to us here. They need a Tet Offensive.
Given the demoralized nature of that letter, I`m not sure they could mount any seriously credible offensive in Iraq; the time may have come to unleash their doomsday scenario, assuming they have one.
We had best be wary.
The great danger lies in what will happen during der feind`s death spasms; generally when an enemy is boxed in they will launch some kind of desperate counter-strike. Sometimes the strike will work (the Tet offensive) more often it will not (the Bulge). What will Al-Quada do?
It should be obvious that Al-Quada`s ability to wage war effectively in Iraq is dwindling; basic military strategy suggests attacking elsewhere. I`ve always believed that Al-Quada has been quietly setting up operations here in the United States, but has not acted because another attack would galvanize the will of the Nation. I believe their strategy has been to fight us overseas so that America would become war-weary and, as in Vietnam, politics would drive an eventual capitulation. Bin-Laden has called America a paper tiger, and pointed out that we have retreated whenever we have been hit. Of course, he misunderstood our character in many ways; Somalia, for instance, was purely an humanitarian exercise (as opposed to an act of Imperialism, as Bin Laden believed) so we pulled out after ``Black Hawk Down`` because we saw no reason to die helping a bunch of ingrates. Bin Laden, and indeed many in the world throughout history, has never understood this about America. (The Japanese viewed America in the same manner prior to the bombing of Pearl Harbor-they learned the hard way.)
I think the top brass at Al-Quada issued their strongest interdiction against attacking America on her own soil. The idea is to put Democrats in office, who will wind down the war; the failure to win this thing politically may change matters. If Al-Quada has the means, they may well launch an attack against the homeland. I think they were counting on winning in Iraq, and failure there means they have to take the war to us here. They need a Tet Offensive.
Given the demoralized nature of that letter, I`m not sure they could mount any seriously credible offensive in Iraq; the time may have come to unleash their doomsday scenario, assuming they have one.
We had best be wary.
posted by Timothy Birdnow | 5:20 AM
1 Comments:
I would not be surprized if the next great attack on American soil will be inauguration day 2008 - similar to the releasing of the Iranian-held hostages in 1980.
For all his faults President Bush has made in very clear that he will act, not just react, to the jihad. You are so right when you say they underestimated America. Bush likes to use the word resolve and by all measures it means something to him and now it clearly means something to America'a enemies (foreign and domestic). I have a lot of admiration for the President in this regard. I do not want him to be the apologist-in-chief the way Bill Clinton was. I kind of like the tough cowboy persona. "Let's Roll!" beats the heck out of "I feel your pain"
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