The Brink of the Apocalypse; Iran Nearing the End of her Nuclear Program
Timothy Birdnow
Iran is just months away from producing nuclear weapons, according to a Rand report.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1394901/Iran-produce-nuclear-weapon-months-claimed-U-N-atomic-watchdog-reveals-concerns.html
From the article in the U.K. Daily Mail:
"Gregory S Jones, from RAND, published a report this week explaining the severity of the situation and to confirm the fears expressed by a United Nations watchdog.
Iranian nuclear experts at the research centre of the uranium conversion plant in the Isfahan. The country is only a matter of months from creating a nuclear weapon
In spite of a number of set backs, says the researcher, the Iranian regime is back on track with their nuclear programme - and there is very little American, or the U.N. can do about it.
Jones based his report on recent findings by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - their report was published two weeks ago.
Manufacturing the bomb will take about two months, Jones believes - as constructing a nuclear warhead is a complicated process.
In order to halt the process, Jones comments, forces will have to deploy ground forces - airstrikes will no longer be sufficient.
He believes that Tehran, the Iranian capital, has produced 38.3kg of uranium enriched at 19.7 per cent.
Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, Yukiya Amano, is concerned by Iran's nuclear capabilities
Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, Yukiya Amano, is concerned by Iran's nuclear capabilities
If its centrifuges continue to work at the current capacity, it will take around two months for the Iranian regime to produce the 20 kg of uranium enriched to 90 per cent required for the production of a nuclear warhead."
End excerpt.
Enrichment from 20 to over 90% (it is actually necessary to reach closer to 95% to build an effective bomb) is not difficult; it's the first twenty percent that is the most challenging. If you can reach twenty with your centrifuges you can generally reach ninety fairly easily.
Enrichment of uranium IS the bomb project; the actual construction of the device is a formality. There are a number of different configurations, but they are well documented and are self-explanatory once you have the fissile material. First time bomb makers generally go for the gun style; put a sphere of uranium at one end, a tower, and a gun at the other. Fire a uranium bullet into the uranium sphere and poof! Liquify people, buildings, and other asundry paraphanalia. It's like a super-sized Ronco tool! Amaze your friends!
It's the enrichment that is the important matter; the original Manhattan Project had only one good option for enrichment, and that was using magnets to seperate the U235 from the U238. It was laborious and time consuming and required huge facilities. Nobody uses that method, because the world would know what they were doing. Lasers can be used, or other very high tech methods, but the most common is the centrifuge; seperate the heavier U238 by spinning. Problem is, these things have to spin FAST and for long periods of time, and that requires some serious hardware. Places like Iran cannot make adequate centrifuges themselves, because they don't have the high-tech materials needed to keep these babies going. This stuff has to be imported, and that leaves a paper trail.
But there is no trail if some great power like China or Russia gives these materials to them. That is precisely what has been occuring; our "friends" can see only that they are screwing America, cannot see that a nuclear Iran is as great a threat to them as anyone. They cannot see that Iranian nukes could lead to the Big One, suck all the great powers into a war where everyone ends up dead.
And WE made it possible. We have supported China in her drive to modernize with "constructive engagement" and selling our debt to them, we failed to aid Russia in creating a modern democratic state, and now the KGB owns that country and runs it like a drug cartel. Vengence is on their minds, and the Chinese think Iran could bring us down - and the crazy Russians too! We let them do it; they could have been stopped with economic pressure, but no longer. The barn door is still flopping in the breeze.
Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, and especially BHO, have allowed this problem to fester. The whole Middle-Eastern hornet's nest stems from our unwillingness to deal with Iran. Bush II had the idea that if we created two modern states on opposite sides of Iran that a revolution would make the apocalyptic regime fall, but we failed to plan for it and when uprisings struck we sat idly by while the Mullahs crushed them. We should have crushed the Mullahs, but we were afraid, afraid of Arabs being ticked off (when are they not?), afraid of the Russians, the Chinese, afraid of our own peacenik left.
Fear is the enemy of self-defense; criminals and terrorists understand that, and keep their victims frightened to make them docile. We have largely become docile, and have been unwilling to do what was needed. Bush II should have invaded Iran instead of Iraq.
Now we're going to have to. Bombs won't do it anymore.
The world rushes to the apocalypse.
Hat tip; James Lewis and American Thinker
Iran is just months away from producing nuclear weapons, according to a Rand report.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1394901/Iran-produce-nuclear-weapon-months-claimed-U-N-atomic-watchdog-reveals-concerns.html
From the article in the U.K. Daily Mail:
"Gregory S Jones, from RAND, published a report this week explaining the severity of the situation and to confirm the fears expressed by a United Nations watchdog.
Iranian nuclear experts at the research centre of the uranium conversion plant in the Isfahan. The country is only a matter of months from creating a nuclear weapon
In spite of a number of set backs, says the researcher, the Iranian regime is back on track with their nuclear programme - and there is very little American, or the U.N. can do about it.
Jones based his report on recent findings by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - their report was published two weeks ago.
Manufacturing the bomb will take about two months, Jones believes - as constructing a nuclear warhead is a complicated process.
In order to halt the process, Jones comments, forces will have to deploy ground forces - airstrikes will no longer be sufficient.
He believes that Tehran, the Iranian capital, has produced 38.3kg of uranium enriched at 19.7 per cent.
Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, Yukiya Amano, is concerned by Iran's nuclear capabilities
Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, Yukiya Amano, is concerned by Iran's nuclear capabilities
If its centrifuges continue to work at the current capacity, it will take around two months for the Iranian regime to produce the 20 kg of uranium enriched to 90 per cent required for the production of a nuclear warhead."
End excerpt.
Enrichment from 20 to over 90% (it is actually necessary to reach closer to 95% to build an effective bomb) is not difficult; it's the first twenty percent that is the most challenging. If you can reach twenty with your centrifuges you can generally reach ninety fairly easily.
Enrichment of uranium IS the bomb project; the actual construction of the device is a formality. There are a number of different configurations, but they are well documented and are self-explanatory once you have the fissile material. First time bomb makers generally go for the gun style; put a sphere of uranium at one end, a tower, and a gun at the other. Fire a uranium bullet into the uranium sphere and poof! Liquify people, buildings, and other asundry paraphanalia. It's like a super-sized Ronco tool! Amaze your friends!
It's the enrichment that is the important matter; the original Manhattan Project had only one good option for enrichment, and that was using magnets to seperate the U235 from the U238. It was laborious and time consuming and required huge facilities. Nobody uses that method, because the world would know what they were doing. Lasers can be used, or other very high tech methods, but the most common is the centrifuge; seperate the heavier U238 by spinning. Problem is, these things have to spin FAST and for long periods of time, and that requires some serious hardware. Places like Iran cannot make adequate centrifuges themselves, because they don't have the high-tech materials needed to keep these babies going. This stuff has to be imported, and that leaves a paper trail.
But there is no trail if some great power like China or Russia gives these materials to them. That is precisely what has been occuring; our "friends" can see only that they are screwing America, cannot see that a nuclear Iran is as great a threat to them as anyone. They cannot see that Iranian nukes could lead to the Big One, suck all the great powers into a war where everyone ends up dead.
And WE made it possible. We have supported China in her drive to modernize with "constructive engagement" and selling our debt to them, we failed to aid Russia in creating a modern democratic state, and now the KGB owns that country and runs it like a drug cartel. Vengence is on their minds, and the Chinese think Iran could bring us down - and the crazy Russians too! We let them do it; they could have been stopped with economic pressure, but no longer. The barn door is still flopping in the breeze.
Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, and especially BHO, have allowed this problem to fester. The whole Middle-Eastern hornet's nest stems from our unwillingness to deal with Iran. Bush II had the idea that if we created two modern states on opposite sides of Iran that a revolution would make the apocalyptic regime fall, but we failed to plan for it and when uprisings struck we sat idly by while the Mullahs crushed them. We should have crushed the Mullahs, but we were afraid, afraid of Arabs being ticked off (when are they not?), afraid of the Russians, the Chinese, afraid of our own peacenik left.
Fear is the enemy of self-defense; criminals and terrorists understand that, and keep their victims frightened to make them docile. We have largely become docile, and have been unwilling to do what was needed. Bush II should have invaded Iran instead of Iraq.
Now we're going to have to. Bombs won't do it anymore.
The world rushes to the apocalypse.
Hat tip; James Lewis and American Thinker
posted by Timothy Birdnow | 5:41 AM
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