Empty Piggybanks and Playstation America
The last election revealed, at least to me, the fundamental weakness of the Republicans at the grassroots level. Many conservative pundits are desperately trying to salve their wounds, telling themselves that this was merely an aberrational outburst by the American People and that the Republicans will be back stronger than ever in `08. While I admire their enthusiasm, I have to disagree with this particular assessment; the Republicans lost in both chambers of Congress, and, more importantly, lost big-time on the State and local levels. This bodes very ill for the health of the Party, and illustrates the collapse of the conservative coalition in the heartland of America.
I`ve argued previously that the loss of the House of Representatives would not be the end of the world, but that the loss of both Chambers would signal disaster. Unfortunately, I had greater faith than was warranted; I knew that many people here don`t understand the nature of the war we are in, and that perhaps as many as half of Americans do not believe we are at war. Still, I assumed enough people would understand the childishness of the Democrats, that in these critical times where our security and our lives are at stake we simply couldn`t afford to hand power to the Children`s Hour. Unfortunately, the Democrats have been diligently peddling their opium dreams to an America which has largely forgotten Ronald Reagan, the Cold War, and even the concept that the world is not America`s oyster. Too many Americans live in a sand castle reality, where tomorrow will be the same as yesterday, where our position, our ease, and our comfort are assured by Divine Right and the ACLU. Just look at the mad scramble for Playstation 3! Americans are more concerned with a TOY than with their own security! We have a Playstation Culture, a culture where the lines have blurred between reality and fantasy. It should come as no surprise that this Penny Arcade society would fall for the paper machete pie and construction paper sky offered by the H.R. Puffinstuff party.
The sad fact is, the Republicans have failed at the grassroots. The reasons for this are legion; the collapse of the Reagan coalition in an attempt to accept the moderate wing-and their money-as partners, the laundry maid approach to politics advocated by Bush and Rove (they`re wishy-washy), McCain`s campaign finance reform which President Scrub-a-dub-dub signed, the conservative`s unwillingness to deal with the power of the mainstream media, etc. But the main thing is that the Republicans became used to power, and power became the goal of the party rather than the advancement of ideas.
Bereft of any strong, positive message, the public has grown bored and the Republicans could not scare them into voting against the Santa Claus Democrats. The grassroots can`t succeed without a message, and the message from the party in general has become so unfocused and unprincipled that the piggy bank is empty.
While the Republicans may well win back control of Congress, they have set themselves up for long-term failure. They are clearly losing at the state level, and redistricting comes after every census. Who will control the redistricting? The Republicans cemented their control of Congress because they had worked for over a decade to control the machinery which controlled redistricting. They were able to gerrymander districts to keep themselves in power. Having achieved their goal, they began concentrating on national power at the expense of the grassroots. But, ultimately, all politics is local, and victory or defeat will be achieved at the precinct, at the mall, at the park and playground and school. It starts with convincing the uninformed, with soccer moms and nascar dads, with college kids and townies and 4H`ers. While conservatives haven`t failed, exactly, with this, they have rested a bit too much on their laurels. We have to remember that this is an eternal battle, because there is always a new generation coming up and because many we have convinced have forgotten.
Win those battles and you win control of state legislatures, of state governorships, of state courts. Win the states, and you win Congress, the Presidency, and the Supreme Court. Lose those small battles and you LOSE!
This last election illustrates that Republicans have LOST, that Americans are swinging towards the Democrats. This may not be an ideological defeat, but then, the Republicans have not waged an ideological campaign for the hearts and minds of the American People (I wish the President had concentrated more on winning American hearts and minds, and more on winning battles in Iraq.)
We are going to have to rebuild from the bottom up, and this is going to be a tedious process. Unfortunately, given the conservative nature of the Republicans (conservative with a small c; by this I mean unmoving, not ideological) it appears we will have business as usual, and the Republicans may be in for a long, cold winter.
(From the Evans-Novak Report)
State Legislatures 2006
For Republicans, the story on state legislatures in the election of 2006 rounds out the story of defeat across the board in the House and Senate and in governorships nationwide.
Democrats gained control of four state Senates and six state Houses. Republicans lost seats in most states, but may have gained functional control of one state Senate. We take a look at some of the legislative changes this week. We will continue our summary of key states next week.
Alabama: The realignment of the 1990s still hasn't reached Alabama on the state government level, but it's getting closer. Officially, Democrats here have majorities in both houses, as they have since Reconstruction. But a bi-partisan majority now threatens to oust the Democratic leadership of Sen. Lowell Barron (D). Because Republicans gained two seats and narrowed their deficit in the Senate to 23-12, six conservative Democrats are in talks with them to create a new, mixed 18-seat majority caucus.
Republicans gained just one seat in the House, bringing the Democrats' advantage to 62-43. Projected Mixed Control.
Arizona: Republicans needed just one more House seat to get a two-thirds majority and override vetoes by Gov. Janet Napolitano's (D). But Democrats gained seven seats in the state House, narrowing the Republicans' edge to 32-28. The Republicans' candidate for governor, conservative activist Len Munsil (R), was so weak that it had a clear impact on the Republican totals for state government statewide.
Republicans' Senate edge remained the same at 18-12. Continued Republican Control.
Florida: Democrats picked up seven seats, depriving Republicans of their two-thirds majority in the state House. It was the largest Democratic gain in 20 years. But the 78-42 margin was bumped back up when State Rep. Will Kendrick, in his last term due to term-limits, defected to the GOP, putting the margin at 79-41. Kendrick, who hails from the state's conservative Panhandle, has always been a conservative anyway, so his defection to the majority comes as just a tiny surprise. Continued Republican Control.
Minnesota: Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) won a lonely victory in Minnesota as Democrats swept the down-ticket statewide races. Republicans even unexpectedly lost incumbent Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer (R).
But in the state House, Republican losses were catastrophic. The 18-seat Democratic gain there came after a 2005 partial government shutdown and Pawlenty's budget cuts of local government aid in 2006. Republicans entered the 2006 elections clinging to a one-seat majority, but they wound up with an 85-49 deficit. It was a huge gain for Democrats after their massive gains in the House in 2004.
Democrats grew their margin in the state Senate by six seats, bringing the total to 44-23. Change to Democratic Control.
Oklahoma: Republicans had high hopes of capturing the state Senate in this, the second election in which term-limits began ousting the old guard of Democratic incumbents. In fact, they would have taken Senate control if not for the defection of state Sen. Nancy Riley to the Democrats over the summer. The Senate ended in a 24-24 tie.
Jari Askins (D), who won the lieutenant governorship vacated by Rep.-elect Mary Fallin (R), will be able to break party-line ties and will at least help organize the Senate under Democratic control.
Republicans believe the disastrous gubernatorial bid of Rep. Ernest Istook (R) dragged down their ticket and prevented their expected Senate takeover. Republicans continue to control the state House with a 56-45 majority after losing one seat.
Riley, who won a four-year term in 2004 running as a Republican, made an unsuccessful run at the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor and remains in the Senate at least until 2008. Continued Mixed Control.Pennsylvania: Republicans just barely held on to the state House after a tumultuous primary season and a disastrous up-ticket election.
Incumbents from both parties faced angry voters during the primary season after the legislature had given itself a pay-raise in a way that clearly contravened the state constitution. The public furor cost the jobs of the top two Republican state senators, who lost their primaries, and several other members as well. Democrats also faced stiff primary challenges because of the pay raise, but by and large, their incumbents survived.
Democrats gained seven seats in the state House, for a final composition of 102 Republicans and 101 Democrats. One recount, still pending, could flip control to the Democrats, but this is not expected.
Republicans' lead in the state Senate remains unchanged at 29-21. If the GOP can find a credible candidate to succeed Gov. Ed Rendell (D), they still have a chance of totally controlling the all-important redistricting process after 2010. Republicans still control both chambers, but their margin is extremely precarious. Continued Republican Control.
I`ve argued previously that the loss of the House of Representatives would not be the end of the world, but that the loss of both Chambers would signal disaster. Unfortunately, I had greater faith than was warranted; I knew that many people here don`t understand the nature of the war we are in, and that perhaps as many as half of Americans do not believe we are at war. Still, I assumed enough people would understand the childishness of the Democrats, that in these critical times where our security and our lives are at stake we simply couldn`t afford to hand power to the Children`s Hour. Unfortunately, the Democrats have been diligently peddling their opium dreams to an America which has largely forgotten Ronald Reagan, the Cold War, and even the concept that the world is not America`s oyster. Too many Americans live in a sand castle reality, where tomorrow will be the same as yesterday, where our position, our ease, and our comfort are assured by Divine Right and the ACLU. Just look at the mad scramble for Playstation 3! Americans are more concerned with a TOY than with their own security! We have a Playstation Culture, a culture where the lines have blurred between reality and fantasy. It should come as no surprise that this Penny Arcade society would fall for the paper machete pie and construction paper sky offered by the H.R. Puffinstuff party.
The sad fact is, the Republicans have failed at the grassroots. The reasons for this are legion; the collapse of the Reagan coalition in an attempt to accept the moderate wing-and their money-as partners, the laundry maid approach to politics advocated by Bush and Rove (they`re wishy-washy), McCain`s campaign finance reform which President Scrub-a-dub-dub signed, the conservative`s unwillingness to deal with the power of the mainstream media, etc. But the main thing is that the Republicans became used to power, and power became the goal of the party rather than the advancement of ideas.
Bereft of any strong, positive message, the public has grown bored and the Republicans could not scare them into voting against the Santa Claus Democrats. The grassroots can`t succeed without a message, and the message from the party in general has become so unfocused and unprincipled that the piggy bank is empty.
While the Republicans may well win back control of Congress, they have set themselves up for long-term failure. They are clearly losing at the state level, and redistricting comes after every census. Who will control the redistricting? The Republicans cemented their control of Congress because they had worked for over a decade to control the machinery which controlled redistricting. They were able to gerrymander districts to keep themselves in power. Having achieved their goal, they began concentrating on national power at the expense of the grassroots. But, ultimately, all politics is local, and victory or defeat will be achieved at the precinct, at the mall, at the park and playground and school. It starts with convincing the uninformed, with soccer moms and nascar dads, with college kids and townies and 4H`ers. While conservatives haven`t failed, exactly, with this, they have rested a bit too much on their laurels. We have to remember that this is an eternal battle, because there is always a new generation coming up and because many we have convinced have forgotten.
Win those battles and you win control of state legislatures, of state governorships, of state courts. Win the states, and you win Congress, the Presidency, and the Supreme Court. Lose those small battles and you LOSE!
This last election illustrates that Republicans have LOST, that Americans are swinging towards the Democrats. This may not be an ideological defeat, but then, the Republicans have not waged an ideological campaign for the hearts and minds of the American People (I wish the President had concentrated more on winning American hearts and minds, and more on winning battles in Iraq.)
We are going to have to rebuild from the bottom up, and this is going to be a tedious process. Unfortunately, given the conservative nature of the Republicans (conservative with a small c; by this I mean unmoving, not ideological) it appears we will have business as usual, and the Republicans may be in for a long, cold winter.
(From the Evans-Novak Report)
State Legislatures 2006
For Republicans, the story on state legislatures in the election of 2006 rounds out the story of defeat across the board in the House and Senate and in governorships nationwide.
Democrats gained control of four state Senates and six state Houses. Republicans lost seats in most states, but may have gained functional control of one state Senate. We take a look at some of the legislative changes this week. We will continue our summary of key states next week.
Alabama: The realignment of the 1990s still hasn't reached Alabama on the state government level, but it's getting closer. Officially, Democrats here have majorities in both houses, as they have since Reconstruction. But a bi-partisan majority now threatens to oust the Democratic leadership of Sen. Lowell Barron (D). Because Republicans gained two seats and narrowed their deficit in the Senate to 23-12, six conservative Democrats are in talks with them to create a new, mixed 18-seat majority caucus.
Republicans gained just one seat in the House, bringing the Democrats' advantage to 62-43. Projected Mixed Control.
Arizona: Republicans needed just one more House seat to get a two-thirds majority and override vetoes by Gov. Janet Napolitano's (D). But Democrats gained seven seats in the state House, narrowing the Republicans' edge to 32-28. The Republicans' candidate for governor, conservative activist Len Munsil (R), was so weak that it had a clear impact on the Republican totals for state government statewide.
Republicans' Senate edge remained the same at 18-12. Continued Republican Control.
Florida: Democrats picked up seven seats, depriving Republicans of their two-thirds majority in the state House. It was the largest Democratic gain in 20 years. But the 78-42 margin was bumped back up when State Rep. Will Kendrick, in his last term due to term-limits, defected to the GOP, putting the margin at 79-41. Kendrick, who hails from the state's conservative Panhandle, has always been a conservative anyway, so his defection to the majority comes as just a tiny surprise. Continued Republican Control.
Minnesota: Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) won a lonely victory in Minnesota as Democrats swept the down-ticket statewide races. Republicans even unexpectedly lost incumbent Secretary of State Mary Kiffmeyer (R).
But in the state House, Republican losses were catastrophic. The 18-seat Democratic gain there came after a 2005 partial government shutdown and Pawlenty's budget cuts of local government aid in 2006. Republicans entered the 2006 elections clinging to a one-seat majority, but they wound up with an 85-49 deficit. It was a huge gain for Democrats after their massive gains in the House in 2004.
Democrats grew their margin in the state Senate by six seats, bringing the total to 44-23. Change to Democratic Control.
Oklahoma: Republicans had high hopes of capturing the state Senate in this, the second election in which term-limits began ousting the old guard of Democratic incumbents. In fact, they would have taken Senate control if not for the defection of state Sen. Nancy Riley to the Democrats over the summer. The Senate ended in a 24-24 tie.
Jari Askins (D), who won the lieutenant governorship vacated by Rep.-elect Mary Fallin (R), will be able to break party-line ties and will at least help organize the Senate under Democratic control.
Republicans believe the disastrous gubernatorial bid of Rep. Ernest Istook (R) dragged down their ticket and prevented their expected Senate takeover. Republicans continue to control the state House with a 56-45 majority after losing one seat.
Riley, who won a four-year term in 2004 running as a Republican, made an unsuccessful run at the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor and remains in the Senate at least until 2008. Continued Mixed Control.Pennsylvania: Republicans just barely held on to the state House after a tumultuous primary season and a disastrous up-ticket election.
Incumbents from both parties faced angry voters during the primary season after the legislature had given itself a pay-raise in a way that clearly contravened the state constitution. The public furor cost the jobs of the top two Republican state senators, who lost their primaries, and several other members as well. Democrats also faced stiff primary challenges because of the pay raise, but by and large, their incumbents survived.
Democrats gained seven seats in the state House, for a final composition of 102 Republicans and 101 Democrats. One recount, still pending, could flip control to the Democrats, but this is not expected.
Republicans' lead in the state Senate remains unchanged at 29-21. If the GOP can find a credible candidate to succeed Gov. Ed Rendell (D), they still have a chance of totally controlling the all-important redistricting process after 2010. Republicans still control both chambers, but their margin is extremely precarious. Continued Republican Control.
posted by Timothy Birdnow | 7:27 AM
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