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Location: St. Louis, Missouri, United States

Friday, September 09, 2011


Ron De Haan forwards this:

From written by the best sea level expert we have:
Sep 07, 2011A sad and twisted story: Stealing the limelight from real problems in the real world

By Nils-Axel Morner, Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm, Sweden,

Ban Ki Moon and the Secretary-General of the Pacific Islands Forum have recently claimed that serious sea level rise problems occur both in Tuvalu and Kiribati. This is what two misguided politicians may say. But what is the reality, we must ask.

The answer is clear and straight forward: the is no sea level rise going on - at least for the last 18 years - either in Tuvalu or in Kiribati.

Over and over again, have I tried to demonstrate (Mörner, 2007; 2010, 2011) that sea is not at all in a rising mode in Tuvalu judging from the only information there is; i.e. the tide gauge records. The same has been done by others, especially Gray (2010). This is illustrated in Figs 1 and 2, where there are no signs of any sea level rise.

Fig. 1. The total tide gauge record from 1978 for Tuvalu (from Mörner, 2010). Since 1985 there are no signs of any sea level rise. Three major ENSO events with significant drops in sea level are recorded in 1983, 1992 and 1998.


Fig. 2. The SEAFRAME tide gauge record from Tuvalu with no sign of any ongoing sea level rise (redrawn from Gray, 2010).


So, if our observational facts say: no rise in sea lever, why are people continuing to drive the sea level rise illusion. It doesn’t become better (rather the opposite) if you are the Secretary-General for the United Nation or Pacific Island Forum. It is simply wrong. But what is worth; it steals the limelight from real problems in the real world.

The same is true for Kiribati. It lies in an area of the SW Pacific where satellite altimetry proposes a sea level rise in the order of 5 mm/year. Gray (2010) showed that this does indeed not concur with the last SEAFRAME tide gauge record from Kiribati (Fig. 3). The record spans 17 years. Still, it does not record any long-term sea level rise; just a stability.

Fig. 3. The SEAFRAME tide-gauge record from Kiribati (redrawn from Grav, 2010) provides no documentation of any long-tern sea level rise; just a stability of the past 17 years.


Vanuatu is another famous site in the sea level debate. Here, too, there is a total absence of indications of any sea level rise over the past 17-18 years (Mörner, 2007, 2011; Gray, 2010). The list can be enlarged over wider (the Indian Ocean with places like the Maldives and
Bangladesh) and wider (spots all over the globe; not least northwestern Europe where it all can be put at a test; even so in Venice).

Obviously, there is a major clash between scenario based computer simulations and reality in the form of observational based facts and observations in nature itself. Therefore, there are all logical reasons to turn away from the propaganda information and concentrate all attention and interest on observational facts. In this case, those facts give a very clear and irrefutable message; there is no alarming sea level rise either in Tuvalu or Kiribati.

Ban Ki Moon and his friend from the Pacific Islands Forum should both feel ashamed of their claims and statements with respect to Tuvalu and Kiribati.


Gray, V., 2010. The South Pacific Sea Level: A reassessment. SPPI Original Paper, p. 1-24.

Morner, N.-A., 2007. The Greatest Lie Ever Told. 1st Edition, 2007, P&G print, Stockholm.Also: What Sea Level Rise? 21st Century Science & Technology, Fall 2007, Front, p. 25-29, 30-34.

Morner, N.-A., 2010. Some problems in the reconstruction of mean sea level and its changes with time. Quaternary International, 221, 3-8,

Morner, N.-A., 2011. The great sea level humbug. There is no alarming sea level rise. 21st Century Science & Technology, Winter 2010/11 issue, p. 7-17.

See also this sea level piece in SPPI and Master Resource by Chip Knappenberger.

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